Crypto trading firm warns of 'classic bull trap' as Bitcoin tags $82.7K
Bitcoin (BTC) risks becoming part of a “classic bull trap” when the US-China trade war takes its next step, analysis warns.In its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers on April 10, trading firm QCP Capital cautioned over the latest crypto price rebound.QCP: Chinese “countermeasures” may leave crypto bulls strandedBitcoin and altcoins joined global stock markets in rallying over the past 24 hours thanks to a decision by US President Donald Trump to pause many of his new trade tariffs.China was a clear exception to the policy, with Trump doubling down on those tariffs while alleviating pressure on other countries. For QCP, now is the time not for relief, but to brace for China’s next move.“With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing’s counterpunch,” it said. “Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.”BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSuch a scenario would form a repeat of market behavior already seen this week. As Cointelegraph reported, an earlier rumor of a tariff pause that failed to find official confirmation sparked whipsaw stock moves never seen before.“The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution,” QCP continued. “Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions.”Bitcoin to get “meaningful slice” of yuan outflowsOthers noted potential tailwinds for Bitcoin in the form of Chinese yuan devaluation as a stopgap measure in the trade dispute. USD/CNY hit 18-year lows of 7.35 on the day.Related: Crypto stocks see big gains alongside US stock market reboundNo deal, PBOC continues a very gradual yuan weakening. Shit ‘bout to get spicy. Luckily $BTC loves money printing and associated ccy weakness. pic.twitter.com/RcVkSj54O3— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 10, 2025“China beginning currency devaluation is more than just an economic signal—it’s a trigger,” Sina, co-founder of asset management firm 21st Capital, told X followers in part of a post on the topic. “Historically, when the yuan weakens, capital doesn’t stay put. It escapes. Some of it flows into gold, some into foreign assets—and a meaningful slice finds its way into Bitcoin.”USD/CNY 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSina suggested that the macroeconomic reality would make BTC exposure more attractive going forward.“Now layer on rising tariffs, slowing global trade, and a deepening crisis of confidence in traditional financial systems. The result? A growing demand for neutral, borderless, incorruptible assets,” he concluded. “Bitcoin isn’t just a hedge anymore. It’s becoming a necessity in a world looking for stability outside the control of any one nation.”In subsequent discussions, he acknowledged that Bitcoin had probably not yet seen a long-term price bottom.Previously, Cointelegraph reported on various BTC price targets for a sustained rebound, with many of these focusing on $70,000.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Ukraine floats 23% tax on some crypto income, exemptions for stablecoins
Ukraine’s financial regulator has proposed taxing certain crypto transactions as personal income at a rate of up to 23% but excluding crypto-to-crypto transactions and stablecoins. Crypto transactions would be taxed at 18% with a 5% military levy on top as part of the proposed framework, released on April 8 by Ukraine’s National Securities and Stock Market Commission. NSSMC Chairman Ruslan Magomedov said in an April 8 statement that “the issue of crypto taxes is not a hypothesis, but a reality that is fast approaching.” He added that the agency created the framework to help lawmakers make an “informed resolution” by considering each suggestion’s advantages and disadvantages because “these aspects can have a critical impact on the market and tax liability.”Under the NSSMC’s proposed crypto framework, a tax will be applied when crypto is cashed out for fiat currency or exchanged for goods or services. Crypto-to-crypto transactions wouldn’t be taxed, bringing Ukraine in line with other European countries, including Austria and France, as well as crypto-friendly jurisdictions like Singapore, the NSSMC said. The regulator says it “makes sense” to exclude stablecoins backed by foreign currencies or only apply a 5% or 9% tax because Ukraine’s tax code already excludes income from transactions in “foreign exchange values.” A translated excerpt of the NSSMC’s report said stablecoins backed by foreign currencies could be exempt from taxation. Source: NSSMCMining, staking, hard forks and airdrops Other crypto-related activities, such as mining, staking and airdrops, are also addressed in the framework which floated a few options for taxation. The NSSMC said crypto mining is generally considered a business activity, but there might be a general tax-free limit for certain crypto transactions, including mining. Under the framework, staking could be considered as “business captive income” or only taxed if the crypto is cashed out for fiat currencies. While hard forks and airdrops could be taxed either as ordinary income or when the tokens are cashed. Related: Ukraine officials get training on crypto and virtual assets investigationThe regulator suggests a tax-free threshold could help “relieve the burden on small investors” and is common in other jurisdictions. Exemptions for donations, transfers between family members, and holders who keep their crypto for a set amount of time are also flagged as possibilities. However, the NSSMC says the exemption might not apply to non-custodial crypto wallets. Last December, Daniil Getmantsev, head of the tax committee of Ukraine’s parliament, said a draft bill to legalize cryptocurrencies was under review and expected to be finalized early this year. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy first signed a law establishing a legal framework for the country to operate a regulated crypto market in March 2022. Magazine: New ‘MemeStrategy’ Bitcoin firm by 9GAG, jailed CEO’s $3.5M bonus: Asia Express
Digital asset manager 21Shares has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a spot Dogecoin exchange-traded fund, following similar filings from rivals Bitwise and Grayscale.The 21Shares Dogecoin ETF would seek to track the price of the memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE), according to the firm’s April 9 Form S-1 registration statement. The Dogecoin Foundation’s corporate arm, House of Doge, plans to assist 21Shares with marketing the fund.21Shares said Coinbase Custody would be the proposed custodian of its Dogecoin ETF but did not specify a fee, ticker or what stock exchange it would list on.Source: James Seyffart21Shares must also file a 19b-4 filing with the SEC to kickstart the regulator's approval process for the fund. DOGE currently has a $24.2 billion market cap and is the eighth-largest cryptocurrency by value. It was created in 2013 as a joke and is a fork of Lucky Coin, which itself is a fork of Bitcoin.21Shares’ proposed Dogecoin ETF is the company’s latest effort to expand its spot crypto ETF offerings, which currently includes only a spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) fund.The issuer also filed with the SEC in February to launch a spot Polkadot (DOT) ETF and last year, it filed to create a spot XRP (XRP) ETF.Related: Dogecoin millionaires are buying dips as DOGE price eyes 30% rallyThe recent surge in crypto ETF filings reflects a “spaghetti cannon approach” from issuers testing which products the new SEC leadership might approve, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said in February.“Issuers will try to launch many many different things and see what sticks,” Seyffart said.Seyffart and fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in February that there is a 75% chance that the SEC will approve a spot Dogecoin ETF this year, while the betting platform Polymarket currently gives approval odds of 64%.21Shares and House of Doge partner for DOGE funds in Switzerland21Shares also said on April 9 that it partnered with House of Doge to launch a fully backed Dogecoin exchange-traded product on Switzerland’s SIX Swiss Exchange.The 21Shares Dogecoin product will trade under the ticker “DOGE” with a 2.5% fee.21Shares president Duncan Moir said that Dogecoin “has become more than a cryptocurrency: it represents a cultural and financial movement that continues to drive mainstream adoption, and DOGE offers investors a regulated avenue to be part of this exciting project.”Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research
US Senate confirms Paul Atkins to lead SEC under Trump
Update April 10 at 1:41am UTC: This article has been updated to include more background on Paul Atkins before becoming SEC chair.The US Senate has confirmed US President Donald Trump’s nominee, Paul Atkins, as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission in a 51-45 vote largely along party lines.Atkins’ confirmation on April 9 comes after Trump named the pro-crypto former Wall Street consultant to lead the agency late last year. Atkins also served as an SEC commissioner between 2002 and 2008, during the global financial crisis.”A veteran of our Commission, we look forward to him joining with us, along with our dedicated staff, to fulfill our mission on behalf of the investing public,” the agency’s commissioners wrote in an April 9 statement.Atkins founded financial consulting firm Patomak Global Partners in 2009, specializing in regulatory compliance and risk management, and served as co-chair of crypto advocacy group Token Alliance between 2017 and late 2024.After he’s sworn in, Atkins will take over from Mark Uyeda, who has been the SEC’s acting chair since Jan. 20, after former chair Gary Gensler stepped down. Gensler’s tenure saw the SEC launch multiple lawsuits and investigations against crypto firms over alleged breaches of securities laws.Source: Cynthia LummisSenate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott expressed confidence that Atkins would continue the SEC’s crypto-friendly approach that it has taken under the Trump administration.“Atkins will also provide regulatory clarity for digital assets, allowing American innovation to flourish, and ensuring we remain competitive on the global stage.”Under Trump, the SEC created a Crypto Task Force to consult with the industry on regulation and dropped several crypto-related investigations and enforcement actions undertaken by the Gensler-led SEC.Atkins is expected to take a different approach, telling a Senate confirmation hearing in March that a top priority of his at the SEC would be “to provide a firm regulatory foundation for digital assets through a rational, coherent, and principled approach.”Atkins’ confirmation delayed by disclosuresAtkins’ confirmation was reportedly delayed due to several financial disclosures he needed to file as a result of marrying into a billionaire family.Related: No crypto project has registered with the SEC and ‘lived to tell the tale’ — House committee hearingHe married Sarah Humphreys Atkins in 1990 — whose family is tied to TAMKO Building Products LLC, a manufacturer of residential roofing shingles that turned over $1.2 billion in revenue in 2023, Forbes reported in December. The couple have a reported combined net worth of at least $327 million.Some of those financial disclosures revealed that Atkins owned up to $6 million worth of crypto-related investments, including crypto custody platform Anchorage Digital and blockchain tokenization platform Securitize, Fortune reported last month.Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered
Ethereum Researcher Virgil Griffith released from prison
Ethereum researcher Virgil Griffith was released from prison custody on April 9, the Bureau of Prison (BOP) officials confirmed to Cointelegraph.According to crypto developer Brantly Millegan, Griffith will remain in a halfway house for several weeks while waiting to complete the next steps in his parole process.Griffith was arrested in 2019 for giving a lecture about blockchain technology and its power to circumvent US sanctions to an audience in North Korea.Virgil Griffith pictured in the center with his parents immediately following his release from prison custody on April 9. Source: Brantly MilleganThe US government claimed the researcher violated the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by giving North Korea "highly technical information" despite the content of the lecture being widely available knowledge published on the internet.Griffith's case highlights the tension between blockchain developers and state powers as the nascent technology continues to create avenues for individuals and countries to escape financial controls, censorship, and surveillance.Related: Crypto urges Congress to change DOJ rule used against Tornado Cash devsVirgil Griffith’s legal battle against US prosecutorsIn January 2020, a US grand jury indicted Griffith with conspiracy to violate the IEEPA, which gives the Executive Branch of government the power to restrict economic activity between US citizens and foreign powers deemed to be adversarial to the United States.Griffith initially pleaded not guilty to the charges. The software developer's attorneys filed a motion to dismiss the case in October 2020, arguing that Griffith did not violate the law by presenting what was already widely available public knowledge.Griffith on a crypto-focused lecture in 2019 to a North Korean audience. Source: Cointelegraph/United States Department of Justice.Following a lengthy legal battle, which took nearly two years, Griffith pleaded guilty to violating sanctions laws as part of a plea deal with the US government in September 2021.The Ethereum researcher was sentenced to 63 months in prison and ordered to pay a $100,000 fine by the court in April 2022. However, the legal battle did not end there.Two years later, in April 2024, the researcher's attorneys submitted a motion to reduce the prison sentence, which US prosecutors opposed, citing Griffith's actions as harmful to national security.Despite the pushback from the prosecutors, New York Judge Kevin Castel issued a ruling in July 2024 reducing Griffth's prison sentence to 56 months.Magazine: The FBI’s takedown of Virgil Griffith for breaking sanctions, firsthand
AAVE soars 13% as buyback proposal passes among tokenholders
Aave’s tokenholders approved a governance proposal to start buying back the decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol’s governance token, AAVE, as part of a broader tokenomics overhaul, Aave said on April 9. The proposal — which was approved by more than 99% of AAVE tokenholders — permits the protocol to purchase $4 million in AAVE (AAVE) tokens, enough for one month of buybacks. The move is a “first step” toward a broader plan to repurchase $1 million AAVE tokens weekly for six months. It is also the latest instance of DeFi protocols implementing buyback mechanisms in response to tokenholder demands.“The goal is to sustainably increase AAVE acquisition from the open market and distribute it to the Ecosystem Reserve,” the proposal said. The AAVE token’s price rallied more than 13% on April 9, bringing the protocol’s market capitalization to more than $2.1 billion, according to data from CoinGecko.The buyback proposal passed with overwhelming support. Source: AaveRelated: Aave proposal to peg Ethena’s USDe to USDT sparks community pushbackBuybacks gain popularityIn March, the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI), a governance advisory group, proposed a tokenomics revamp that would include new revenue allocations for AAVE tokenholders, enhanced safety features for users, and the creation of an “Aave Finance Committee.”Aave is Web3’s most popular DeFi protocol, with total value locked surpassing $17.5 billion as of April 9, according to DefiLlama. It is also among DeFi’s biggest fee generators, with an estimated annualized fee income of $350 million, the data shows. Aave is DeFi’s most popular protocol by TVL. Source: DeFILlamaDeFi protocols are under increasing pressure to provide tokenholders with a share of protocol revenues — partly because US President Donald Trump has fostered a friendlier regulatory environment for DeFi protocols in the United States.Projects including Ethena, Ether.fi and Maple are piloting value-accrual mechanisms for their native tokens.In January, Maple Finance’s community floated buying back native SYRUP tokens and distributing them as rewards to stakers.In December, Ether.fi, a liquid restaking token issuer, tipped plans to direct 5% of protocol revenues toward buying back native ETHFI tokens. Similarly, Ethena, a yield-bearing stablecoin issuer, agreed to share some of its approximately $200 million in protocol revenues with tokenholders in November.Magazine: DeFi will rise again after memecoins die down: Sasha Ivanov, X Hall of Flame
Bitcoin price soars to $83.5K — Have pro BTC traders turned bullish?
US equities and crypto markets shifted dramatically on April 9 after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariffs, except for China. Bitcoin (BTC) price responded by surging by 5% in less than an hour, reclaiming the $83,000 level which was last seen on April 6.While the S&P 500 gained 8%, Bitcoin derivative metrics have yet to turn bullish as traders remain cautious about changes in US long-term government bonds.Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.chThe BTC futures premium briefly rose above the neutral 5% threshold but failed to sustain its momentum. Investors were skeptical about whether the US Federal Reserve would lower interest rates throughout the year. However, this indicator has moved away from the 3% level observed on March 31, signaling growing confidence among Bitcoin bulls after several failed attempts to push prices below $76,000.Bitcoin traders worry after 10-year yield volatilityTraders’ hesitancy can partly be attributed to the April 9 release of minutes from the Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 18-19. The minutes highlighted concerns about stagflation. According to CME FEDWatch Tool data, the probability of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates below 4% by Sept. 17 dropped from 97.6% on April 8 to 69.7% on April 9.Traders are worried about the implications of a weakened 10-year US Treasury yield. This decline reflects reduced confidence in the government’s ability to manage its growing debt. Economist Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report, explained to Yahoo Finance: “We can draw a line at around the 4.40% level in the 10-year yield.” He added that investors fear “foreigners will continue to reduce their holdings of US Treasurys.”US 10-year Treasury yield. Source: TradingView / CointelegraphWhen bond yields rise, it indicates that buyers are demanding higher returns from the US government. As a result, the cost of rolling over debt increases, potentially creating a negative cycle that weakens the US dollar. This uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment has also been reflected in Bitcoin options markets.Bitcoin derivatives signal a lack of conviction from bullsWhen traders anticipate a market correction, put (sell) options typically trade at a premium, pushing the 25% delta skew (put-call) metric above 6%. On the other hand, during bullish periods, this indicator usually drops below -6%.Bitcoin 1-month options 25% delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.chOn April 9, the Bitcoin options delta skew peaked at 12% after China announced higher tariffs in retaliation. However, this trend reversed completely following President Trump’s announcement of a tariff pause, with the indicator returning to a neutral 3%. This shift suggests that options markets are now pricing equal probabilities for upward and downward price movements, marking the end of a bearish phase that began on March 29.Related: US Dollar Index (DXY) falls close to level that was followed by 500%+ Bitcoin price ralliesTo determine whether this lack of bullish sentiment is limited to monthly futures and options markets, one can examine leverage demand in perpetual futures (inverse swaps). These contracts closely follow spot prices but rely on an 8-hour funding fee. In neutral markets, this funding rate typically ranges between 0.4% and 1.4% over a 30-day period.Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: Laevitas.chOn April 9, the 30-day Bitcoin futures funding rate rose to 0.9%, its highest level in over six weeks. This increase likely reflects retail buyers entering the market but remains within the neutral range. This consistency across BTC derivatives metrics suggests that the tariff pause was insufficient to restore confidence, especially as tensions in the trade war with China persist.It remains unclear what will drive Bitcoin traders to adopt a bullish stance, but reduced macroeconomic uncertainty—such as a decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield—will likely play a critical role.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved options trading for multiple spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a move that may broaden the investment appeal of Ether among institutional traders. The SEC issued the approval on April 9 after reviewing a proposed rule change submitted by BlackRock for its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) on July 22, 2024. Similar approvals were granted to Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW), Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH), as well as Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH).“[T]he Exchange proposes to amend its rules to permit the listing and trading of options on the Trust,” the SEC said in its response to the Nasdaq, adding:The Exchange states that options on the Trust will provide investors with an additional, relatively lower cost investing tool to gain exposure to spot ether as well as a hedging vehicle to meet their needs in connection with ether products and positions.The SEC’s approval of options trading on the iShares Ethereum Trust. Source: SECOptions on ETFs are a portfolio tool that gives investors the ability to hedge against a decline in assets. The strategy’s inclusion is seen as an important step in broadening Ether’s (ETH) investment appeal after regulators approved the spot Ethereum ETFs last July. So far, net inflows into the spot Ether funds have been fairly muted, with most of the institutional interest flooding into Bitcoin (BTC) funds. BlackRock’s ETHA currently has $1.8 billion in net assets, down 56% since the start of the year, according to VettaFi.Related: Ethereum price falls to 2-year low, but pro traders still have hopeShifting regulatory tidesSince the election of US President Donald Trump, the SEC has signaled its readiness to scale back its enforcement initiatives against the crypto industry. Although this was expected, legal experts with the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance were surprised by “how quickly the shifting priorities would come to fruition” since Trump took office.As Cointelegraph recently reported, the securities regulator has closed its investigations into various crypto companies, including exchanges Gemini and Coinbase, decentralized exchange developer Uniswap Labs, and NFT marketplace OpenSea. On the legislative side, regulators are moving quickly to pass pro-stablecoin legislation. The House Financial Services Committee recently advanced the STABLE Act, which is meant to enshrine the use of stablecoins in the United States, and the Senate Banking Committee pushed through the GENIUS Act, which aims to regulate stablecoin issuers. Lawmakers have also tipped plans to advance a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, which is expected to be finalized this year. Related: No crypto project has registered with the SEC and ‘lived to tell the tale’ — House committee hearing
Trade tensions to speed institutional crypto adoption — Execs
Mounting international trade tensions are rattling cryptocurrency markets — but they could also accelerate institutional crypto adoption, several industry executives told Cointelegraph. Since US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on US imports on April 2, core cryptocurrencies experienced double-digit price swings, worsening an ongoing market rout starting earlier this year. However, “[t]he silver lining is that economic uncertainty has historically accelerated institutional interest in digital assets as a diversification strategy,” David Siemer, co-founder and CEO of Wave Digital Assets, told Cointelegraph.Bitcoin has already shown “signs of resilience” amid the market turbulence, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s potential as a hedge against geopolitical disruption, according to an April 7 Binance report. Now, “[a]s traditional banking channels become entangled in geopolitical tensions, we're witnessing increased demand for blockchain-based settlement solutions that operate outside conventional correspondent banking networks,” Siemer said. Bitcoin and the S&P 500’s recent performance. Source: 21SharesRelated: US President Donald Trump issues 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffsTariff turmoilOn April 9, Trump paused implementation of a portion of the sweeping tariffs he announced last week on US imports while simultaneously vowing to hike levies on Chinese goods to 125%. The S&P 500 — an index of the largest US stocks — jumped more than 8% on the news, partially reversing losses tied to Trump’s original tariff announcement, according to Google Finance.Bitcoin’s (BTC) spot price, as well as the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, rose by a similar amount, roughly 8%, as of late-day trading on April 9, CoinMarketCap data shows.Crypto market caps are up on April 9. Source: CoinMarketCapDecentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are particularly well-positioned to benefit from trade turmoil, which highlights the segment’s “strategic value,” according to Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, co-founder and CEO of Concrete & Glow Finance.“DeFi offers a neutral, borderless alternative for accessing credit, earning yield, and moving capital,” Roberts-Huntley said. “For builders, this is an opportunity to double down on interoperability and censorship resistance.”Still, crypto prices will continue to mirror the broader market for the foreseeable future, Aurelie Barthere, a research analyst at Nansen, told Cointelegraph. If the sell-off continues, expect crypto to behave as “just a higher beta risk asset correlated with risk assets at the moment,” Barthere said.Magazine: DeFi will rise again after memecoins die down: Sasha Ivanov, X Hall of Flame
Bitcoin $100K target ‘back on table’ after Trump tariff pause supercharges market sentiment
Bitcoin (BTC) staged a sharp rebound after US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for non-retaliating countries, reigniting bullish momentum and raising hopes for a potential surge toward the $100,000 mark.On April 9, BTC/USD surged by approximately 9%, reversing most of the losses it incurred earlier in the week, to retest $83,000. In doing so, the pair came closer to validating a falling wedge pattern that has been forming on its daily chart since December 2024. A falling wedge pattern forms when the price trends lower inside a range defined by two converging, descending trendlines. In a perfect scenario, the setup resolves when the price breaks decisively above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines.BTC/USD daily price chart ft. falling wedge breakout setup. Source: TradingViewAs of April 9, Bitcoin’s price was confined within the falling wedge range while eyeing a breakout above its upper trendline at around $83,000. If it is confirmed, BTC’s main upside target by June could be around $100,000.Conversely, a rejection from the upper trendline could raise the likelihood of Bitcoin retreating deeper within the wedge pattern, potentially sliding toward the apex near $71,100.Source: Merlijn The TraderIf a breakout occurs after testing the $71,100 level, the most conservative upside target for BTC could still be as high as $91,500.Onchain data supports $100,000 Bitcoin outlookBitcoin’s rebound appears just before testing a critical onchain support zone between $65,000 and $71,000, reinforcing the cryptocurrency’s bullish outlook toward the 100,000 mark. Notably, the $65,000-71,000 range is based on two important Bitcoin metrics—active realized price ($71,000) and the true market mean ($65,000). Bitcoin short-term onchain cost basis bands. Source: GlassnodeThese metrics estimate the average price at which current, active investors bought their Bitcoin. They filter out coins that haven't moved in a long time or are likely lost, giving a relatively accurate picture of the cost basis for those still participating in the market.In the past, Bitcoin has spent about half the time trading above this price range and half below, making it a good indicator of whether the market is feeling positive or negative, according to Glassnode analysts. “We now have confluence across several onchain price models, highlighting the $65k to $71k price range as a critical area of interest for the bulls to establish long-term support,” they wrote in a recent weekly analysis, adding: “Should price trade meaningfully below this range, a super-majority of active investors would be underwater on their holdings, with likely negative impacts on aggregate sentiment to follow.”Related: Bitcoin has 'fully decoupled' despite tariff turmoil, says Adam BackBitcoin’s worst-case scenario is a decline toward $50,000Breaking below the $65,000-71,000 range could worsen Bitcoin’s probability of retesting $100,000 anytime soon. Such declines would also lead to the price breaking below its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewThe 50-week EMA—near $77,760 as of April 9—has historically acted as a dynamic support during bull markets and a resistance during bear markets, making it a crucial trend-defining level. Losing this support could open the door for a steeper pullback toward the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $50,000. Previous breakdowns below the 50-week EMA have resulted in similar declines, namely during the 2021-2022 and 2019-2020 bear cycles.A rebound, on the other hand, raises the likelihood of a $100,000 retest.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
