Selling Bitcoin is like playing in a 'bad house-rate casino' — Adam Back
Selling Bitcoin is like “playing in a really bad house-rate casino,” according to Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and one of Bitcoin’s earliest adopters. In a recent interview with Bitcoin financial services firm Unchained, Back said the odds are stacked against traders trying to time the market.Back came to this conclusion in the early days of Bitcoin, he said, when the price “was going up basically exponentially but it [was] extremely volatile.”“So [...] if you see something that’s going up exponentially but with volatility, if you sell it to time the market a bit falling, the odds are against you,” Back said, adding:“The trend line is up and to the right, exponential, and so there’s extremely bad trading odds attached to selling because you’re really hoping that it falls.”Adam Back during the interview. Source: UnchainedBitcoin is known for its extreme volatility and heightened bull-bear market cycles. It has seen multiple corrections above 80%, which may test the stomach of many investors and believers. However, those who have remained steady through the ups and downs have been rewarded: In the last 10 years, BTC has had a total return of over 39,000%.“I think anything that has a really rapid growth curve ends up with some pretty extreme volatility until it gets closer to full adoption,” Back said. Average returns of the Bitcoin index. Source: CurvoRelated: Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?Diminishing returns theory might not be in play this cycleBack pointed to several factors that could support upward price momentum. He noted that companies like Strategy are not only acquiring Bitcoin directly but also offering indirect exposure through instruments such as convertible notes. Another contributing factor is the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, including investments by sovereign wealth funds. He cited Abu Dhabi’s $408.5 million stake in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. Finally, government entities are starting to venture into crypto. US President Donald Trump issued an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, while the US state of New Hampshire’s governor recently signed such a reserve into law. Texas lawmakers recently passed a bill allowing the that state to create a state Bitcoin reserve.Magazine: Hall of Flame: NBA star Tristan Thompson misses $32B in Bitcoin by taking $82M contract in cash
Maple Finance, FalconX secure Bitcoin-backed loans from Cantor Fitzgerald — Report
Wall Street financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald has closed its first Bitcoin lending deal nearly a year after announcing its crypto lending services.According to a May 27 Bloomberg report, Cantor provided Bitcoin-backed loans to FalconX and Maple Finance. FalconX, a digital asset broker, said it secured a facility worth over $100 million as part of a “broader credit framework,” while Maple Finance reportedly closed the first tranche of an agreement with Cantor.The service allows companies holding Bitcoin to borrow funds and use the cryptocurrency as collateral, providing a way to unlock liquidity without selling their BTC holdings. Cantor announced its Bitcoin financing business with an initial capital of $2 billion in July 2024, targeting institutional investors seeking to leverage their Bitcoin. At the time, the company said Anchorage Digital and Copper would serve as custodians and collateral managers in the venture.Credit markets are a fundamental part of the financial system, allowing capital to flow between borrowers and lenders and supporting economic activity across sectors. Their central role also means they can contribute to financial distress when risks are mismanaged. While mirroring some functions of traditional finance, crypto credit markets have been operating with less regulatory oversight.Digital asset crisis of 2022 This dynamic was evident during the 2022 crisis in the digital asset sector. Celsius Network, once a leading crypto lending platform, collapsed after engaging in risky financial practices and facing allegations of fraud. Similarly, BlockFi filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November 2022 following significant exposure to the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. According to a report from Galaxy, the total crypto lending market, including crypto-backed collateralized debt positions (CDPs) tied to stablecoins, stood at $36.5 billion in the last quarter of 2024, marking a 43% decline from its all-time high of $64.4 billion in 2021. Despite the broader contraction, onchain lending platforms have seen a dramatic rebound, with open borrowed positions surging to $19.1 billion by Q4 2024, a 959% increase over two years. Crypto lending markets remain well below their Q1 2022 peak. Source: GalaxyCantor’s crypto armCantor is one of the most traditional financial services companies in the United States. Founded in 1945, it offers a range of services for institutions, including investment banking, brokerage, equity and fixed-income sales and trading. The company claims to serve over 5,000 clients across 20 countries. The company’s CEO, Howard Lutnick, has been an advocate for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity, akin to gold and oil, and has called for clearer regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies in the US. Lutnick was also appointed to co-lead US President Donald Trump’s transition team in 2024. Cantor is also one of the managers of Tether’s US Treasury securities portfolio backing its stablecoin. In early 2024, the firm acquired a 5% stake in Tether.Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom
Bitcoin price held up by corporate adoption and ‘inflation hedge’ narratives
Key takeaways:Institutional investor demand and corporate adoption may push Bitcoin higher despite recession fears.Investors’ belief that the US Federal Reserve will hold rates favors Bitcoin price upside.Stock markets around the world responded positively to the temporary suspension of import tariffs between the United States and the European Union, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5% on May 27. However, concerns over a global economic recession persist, capping Bitcoin’s (BTC) upside, especially since the baseline US import rates have been raised for most regions.Bitcoin remains antifragile and poised to outperform in uncertain timesGiven the growing investor uncertainty about economic conditions, Bitcoin hovering around the $110,000 level has taken investors by surprise as it consolidates the top-six position as a global tradable asset by market capitalization. Investors now ask whether Bitcoin is becoming antifragile or if a drop below $100,000 is inevitable in a recessionary environment.Traders currently estimate a 41% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain interest rates through September, a steep rise from just 2% one month ago. CME FEDWatch target rate probabilities. Source: CMENormally, a higher cost for capital is bearish for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. However, in this context, it also suggests potential liquidity injections from the Fed, given the unfavorable US fiscal outlook, where government spending exceeds revenue capacity.US President Donald Trump has called for lower interest rates, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious due to a strong labor market and rising inflation pressures, whether driven by tariffs or easy credit conditions. This tension helps explain why the S&P 500 has struggled to retake its February all-time high of 6,147 and why Bitcoin’s upside has also been limited.Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of $2.2 trillion now exceeds that of Google and Meta, which partially explains the $112,000 resistance level. Still, it would be inaccurate to suggest Bitcoin has decoupled from traditional markets; its 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has remained above 70% over the past four weeks. As such, if equities enter a bear market, Bitcoin is likely to face downside as well.30-day correlation: Bitcoin/USD vs. S&P 500 futures. Source: TradingView / CointelegraphCompanies are currently reporting earnings for the first quarter, a period that predates the escalation of the trade war. As a result, the stock market may take longer to reflect the full negative impact, even as macroeconomic indicators show signs of contraction. The 6.3% drop in US durable goods orders in April, reported on May 27, could be the first signal of a weakening economy.US durable goods–new orders for April. Source: US Census BureauHowever, even if corporate earnings for the first quarter fall short of expectations, this does not automatically mean the S&P 500 will suffer significantly. In fact, disappointing results could open the door for faster interest rate cuts, which tend to benefit companies by lowering financing costs and potentially stimulating consumer demand.Bitcoin's appeal as a strategic asset grows, Trump Media joins the partyBitcoin’s risk profile appears to have improved after Trump Media and Technology Group announced plans to acquire BTC following a $2.5 billion mix of debt and equity financing. “We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom,” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said, according to Reuters. This development suggests that Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $112,000 is not solely tied to broader economic growth.Related: Bitcoin stalls at $110K but institutional investors continue gobbling up BTCThe growing institutional and corporate interest in Bitcoin adds a new dimension to its market behavior. While macroeconomic trends and correlations with traditional assets still matter, Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as a strategic asset with utility beyond speculation. As such, its performance could diverge, at least partially, from that of equities, especially as adoption broadens among influential companies and investors.While the stock market may remain sensitive to macro data and earnings surprises, Bitcoin’s upside potential appears to rest on a mix of monetary policy, institutional positioning and its emerging role as a hedge against systemic financial risk.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Trump Media Group reverses stance, confirms $2.5B Bitcoin capital raise
Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), the company that owns US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform and is partially owned by the president, confirmed a $2.5 billion capital raise to purchase Bitcoin (BTC) after denying earlier reports of the deal.According to a May 27 announcement from the company, the capital raise comprises a $1.5 billion stock sale and $1 billion in convertible senior secured bonds, with a 0% coupon. The sale is expected to close on May 29. TMTG CEO Devin Nunes said:“We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom, and now Trump Media will hold cryptocurrency as a crucial part of our assets. This investment will help defend our Company against harassment and discrimination by financial institutions."TMTG spokespeople responded to the initial report from the Financial Times, published a day before the announcement, with derision.“Apparently, the Financial Times has dumb writers listening to even dumber sources,” TMTG representatives told the FT.Shares of TMTG sank following the $2.5 billion capital raise announcement. Source: TradingViewShares of TMTG fell by over 12% following the announcement and were trading around $23.60 at the time of publication.The funding deal comes as a growing number of corporations and countries adopt Bitcoin treasury strategies as the digital asset matures into a financial instrument of geopolitical importance.Related: Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?Bitcoin treasury companies keep stacking Several Bitcoin treasury companies increased their holdings in May this year, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy. According to SaylorTracker, the company acquired an additional 4,020 BTC on May 26.Technology company Semler Scientific purchased 455 BTC, valued at over $50 million, for its treasury, an acquisition the company disclosed in a May 23 filing.Investment firm MetaPlanet, widely regarded by investors as Japan’s MicroStrategy, acquired an additional 1,004 BTC on May 19.Market analyst Jesse Myers recently predicted that at the current rate of institutional accumulation, large entities will own 50% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2045.Myers added that this growth in institutional adoption is driven by a flight to safety from traditional asset classes.“Over the last two years, an exodus from fiat assets — bonds and money — has already begun. Hard money assets, BTC and gold, are where things are shifting,” the analyst wrote in a May 22 X post.Magazine: Metric signals $250K Bitcoin is ‘best case,’ SOL, HYPE tipped for gains: Trade Secrets
Ramaswami's Strive raises $750M for 'alpha-generating' Bitcoin buy strategy
Strive, an asset manager founded by American entrepreneur and politician Vivek Ramaswamy, has announced a $750 million raise to establish “alpha-generating” strategies through Bitcoin-related purchases. According to a May 27 announcement, the strategies will include buying undervalued biotech companies, purchasing “distressed Bitcoin claims” like those associated with crypto hacks and bankruptcies, and acquiring bottom tranches of Bitcoin credit vehicles at discounted prices. “ [...] our alpha-generating Bitcoin accumulation strategies are designed to drive sustained outperformance relative to Bitcoin itself, which requires a new valuation framework,” Strive CEO Matt Cole said. Related: Strive targets Intuit for Bitcoin buys after orange-pilling GameStopThe $750 million raise could expand further through the exercise of warrants, potentially doubling the total to $1.5 billion. The announcement indicates that the entire raise could go to Bitcoin purchases, which could make Strive the fifth-largest Bitcoin treasury company.The raise, completed through private investment, was priced at $1.35 per share of common stock. The funds were raised in partnership with Asset Entities, a marketing company that Strive plans to merge with.Strive announced its intentions to deploy a Bitcoin treasury strategy in early May, also revealing plans to go public through a reverse merger with social media marketing company Asset Entities.In a May 20 regulatory filing, the company shared plans to purchase 75,000 BTC from the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox, targeting claims that have received definitive legal rulings and in line for distribution.The company began offering Bitcoin to clients in November 2024 and sought regulators’ permission to offer a Bitcoin bond exchange-traded fund in the same year.Vivek Ramaswamy, a billionaire who largely built his net worth through his biotech company Roivant Sciences, ran against US President Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primaries. He later withdrew and endorsed Trump.Trump signed an executive order in March to create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset stockpile. Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions
BlackRock in-house portfolio boosts IBIT Bitcoin ETF exposure by 25%
BlackRock’s in-house portfolio has been quietly accumulating shares of its Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), underscoring the asset manager’s growing commitment to the cryptocurrency as part of a broader diversification strategy.As of March 31, 2025, the BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio held 2,123,592 shares of the company’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), valued at $99.4 million, according to filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). That’s a notable uptick from Dec. 31, 2024, when the portfolio held 1,691,143 IBIT shares. The BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio’s consolidated schedule of investments as of March 31, 2025. Source: SECBlackRock’s IBIT was among 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC in January 2024. Since then, it has emerged as the largest fund in its category with more than $72 billion in net assets, according to Bitbo data.The second-largest US Bitcoin ETF is the Fidelity Wise Origin Fund (FBTC), which trails IBIT in net assets by $50 billion. The Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio is primarily a bond-focused strategy that also seeks diversified exposure to other markets, aiming to boost total returns while preserving capital, BlackRock’s prospectus reads. Source: MacroScopeRelated: Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke records in 2024 — Can they do it again in 2025?Bitcoin ETF demand continues to rise among institutional investorsUS spot Bitcoin ETFs shattered records in their debut year, and 2025 is shaping up to deliver a similar performance. As reported by Cointelegraph, May is shaping up to be a record month for spot ETFs, which saw more than $1.5 billion in net inflows over just two days.BlackRock’s IBIT has driven much of that growth, posting consistent inflows since April 9, including multiple days with net buys topping $500 million. Net inflows indicate that asset managers are buying shares of the Bitcoin ETFs to meet growing investor demand.Using the early success of gold ETFs as a benchmark, asset manager Bitwise recently projected that Bitcoin fund inflows could reach $120 billion this year and more than double to $300 billion by 2026.In terms of net inflows, Bitcoin ETFs vastly outperformed gold ETFs in their debut year. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years. Source: Bitwise Asset ManagementWhile spot Bitcoin ETFs have opened the door for retail and institutional investors, a major untapped market remains: the wealth management platforms and wirehouses of major institutions, Bitwise analysts Juan Leon, Guillaume Girard and Will Owens wrote in the report.Magazine: Bitcoin bears eye $69K, CZ denies WLF ‘fixer’ rumors: Hodler’s Digest, May 18 – 24
Bitcoin profit taking lingers, but rally to $115K will liquidate $7B shorts
Key takeaways:Bitcoin could turn parabolic if prices move above $115,000 to liquidate more than $7 billion in short positions.Onchain indicators enter overheated territory, suggesting prolonged profit taking from BTC investors.Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on May 27, briefly tagging $110,700 after a strong US equities market open and the Trump Media and Technology Group’s announcement that it would raise $2.5 billion for a Bitcoin treasury. Bitcoin’s bullish momentum aligns with the favorable US financial conditions, as noted by Ecoinometrics. The macroeconomic-focused Bitcoin newsletter highlighted that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows a rapid shift to ultra-loose territory after a tightening phase in February 2025. The NFCI, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, tracks stress in the financial system by aggregating measures like credit spreads, leverage, and funding conditions. When the index moves into looser territory, it reflects easier access to capital and reduced market stress — conditions that typically encourage risk-taking behavior among investors. For high-beta assets like Bitcoin, such periods often coincide with price rallies as capital flows into speculative markets.US National Financial Conditions Index. Source: EcoinometricsEcoinometrics mentioned that within four weeks, liquidity has returned, creating a supportive macroeconomic environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The newsletter noted, “That’s the kind of macro backdrop where Bitcoin thrives. Bitcoin’s rally to new highs didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s tracking the same pattern we saw since 2023: easing conditions → capital rotation → risk-on.”With Bitcoin just 2% away from its all-time high price, data from CoinGlass indicates that the probability of a short-squeeze remains high due to significant sell-side liquidity. As illustrated below, if Bitcoin breaches $115,000, over $7 billion in short positions could get liquidated, triggering a cascading effect that pushes prices higher.Bitcoin liquidation map. Source: CoinGlassRelated: Bitcoin shows signs of 'easing momentum' but traders still expect $150KOnchain data shows Bitcoin in ‘overheated zone’While the overall momentum remains bullish, Bitcoin’s rally has pushed the market into a zone where historical patterns urge caution. Two key onchain indicators — Supply in Profit Market Bands and the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio — are flashing signals consistent with prior market tops.The Supply in Profit Market Bands metric tracks how much of the circulating BTC supply is currently in profit. As of late May 2025, this figure has surged to 19.4 million BTC, nearing historical extremes and entering the “Overheated Zone.” Previously, BTC prices tested this zone on Dec. 17, 2025, which was followed by a price correction to $93,000 from $107,000. Bitcoin Supply in Profit Market Bands. Source: CryptoQuantSimultaneously, the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio (NUSR), which compares profitable versus unprofitable UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs), is brushing against its historical ceiling around 0.95 — a level frequently preceding sell signals. Red markers on the chart indicate prior instances when such conditions led to local price tops or prolonged consolidations.Bitcoin Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio chart. Source: CryptoQuantThe above data does not guarantee an immediate drop, but these metrics suggest a high probability of increased volatility and profit taking in the short term.Related: Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
93% of all Bitcoin is already mined. Here’s what that means
How much Bitcoin is left to mine? Bitcoin’s total supply is hardcoded at 21 million BTC, a fixed upper limit that cannot be altered without a consensus-breaking change to the protocol. This finite cap is enforced at the protocol level and is central to Bitcoin’s value proposition as a deflationary asset.As of May 2025, approximately 19.6 million Bitcoin (BTC) have been mined, or about 93.3% of the total supply. That leaves roughly 1.4 million BTC yet to be created, and those remaining coins will be mined very slowly.The reason for this uneven distribution is Bitcoin’s exponential issuance schedule, governed by an event called the halving. When Bitcoin launched in 2009, the block reward was 50 BTC. Every 210,000 blocks — or approximately every four years — that reward is cut in half. Because the early rewards were so large, over 87% of the total supply was mined by the end of 2020. Each subsequent halving sharply reduces the rate of new issuance, meaning it will take over a century to mine the remaining 6.7%.According to current estimates, 99% of all Bitcoin will have been mined by 2035, but the final fraction — the last satoshis — won’t be produced until around the year 2140 due to the nature of geometric reward reduction.This engineered scarcity, combined with an immutable supply cap, is what draws comparisons between Bitcoin and physical commodities like gold. But Bitcoin is even more predictable: Gold’s supply grows at around 1.7% annually, whereas Bitcoin’s issuance rate is transparently declining.Did you know? Bitcoin’s supply curve is not terminal in the traditional sense. It follows an asymptotic trajectory — a kind of economic Zeno’s paradox — where rewards diminish indefinitely but never truly reach zero. Mining will continue until around 2140, by which point over 99.999% of the total 21 million BTC will have been issued. Beyond the supply cap: How lost coins make Bitcoin scarcer than you think While over 93% of Bitcoin’s total supply has been mined, that doesn’t mean it’s all available. A significant portion is permanently out of circulation, lost due to forgotten passwords, misplaced wallets, destroyed hard drives or early adopters who never touched their coins again.Estimates from firms like Chainalysis and Glassnode suggest that between 3.0 million and 3.8 million BTC — roughly 14%-18% of the total supply — is likely gone for good. That includes high-profile dormant addresses like the one believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, which alone holds over 1.1 million BTC.This means Bitcoin’s true circulating supply may be closer to 16 million-17 million, not 21 million. And because Bitcoin is non-recoverable by design, any lost coins stay lost — permanently reducing supply over time.Now compare that to gold. Around 85% of the world’s total gold supply has been mined — approximately 216,265 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council — but nearly all of it remains in circulation or held in vaults, jewelry, ETFs and central banks. Gold can be remelted and reused; Bitcoin cannot be resurrected once access is lost.This distinction gives Bitcoin a kind of hardening scarcity, a supply that not only stops growing over time but quietly shrinks.As Bitcoin matures, it’s entering a monetary phase similar to gold: low issuance, high holder concentration and increasing demand-side sensitivity. But Bitcoin takes it further; its supply cap is hard, its loss rate is permanent, and its distribution is publicly auditable.This may lead to several outcomes:Increased price volatility as available supply becomes more limited and sensitive to market demandHigher long-term value concentration in the hands of those who remain active and secure in their key managementA premium on liquidity, where actually spendable BTC trades at a higher effective value than dormant supply.In extreme cases, this could produce a bifurcation between “circulating BTC” and “unreachable BTC,” with the former gaining greater economic significance, particularly in times of constrained exchange liquidity or macroeconomic stress. What happens when Bitcoin is fully mined? There’s a popular assumption that as Bitcoin’s block rewards shrink, the network’s security will eventually suffer. But in practice, the mining economy is far more adaptive — and much more resilient — than that.Bitcoin’s mining incentives are governed by a self-correcting feedback loop: If mining becomes unprofitable, miners drop off the network, which in turn triggers a difficulty adjustment. Every 2,016 blocks (roughly every two weeks), the network recalibrates mining difficulty using a parameter known as nBits. The goal is to keep block times steady at around 10 minutes, regardless of how many miners are competing.So, if Bitcoin’s price drops, or the reward becomes too small relative to operating costs, inefficient miners simply exit. This causes difficulty to fall, lowering the cost for those who remain. The result is a system that continually rebalances itself, aligning network participation with available incentives.This mechanism has already been tested at scale. After China banned mining in mid-2021, Bitcoin’s global hashrate dropped by more than 50% in a matter of weeks. Yet the network continued to function without interruption, and within a few months, the hashrate fully recovered, as miners resumed operations in jurisdictions with lower energy costs and more favorable regulations.Critically, the idea that lower rewards will inherently threaten network security overlooks how mining is tied to profit margins, not nominal BTC amounts. As long as the market price supports the cost of hash power — even at 0.78125 BTC per block (post-2028 halving) or lower — miners will continue to secure the network.In other words, it’s not the absolute reward that matters, but whether mining remains profitable relative to costs. And thanks to Bitcoin’s built-in difficulty adjustment, it usually does.Even a century from now, when the block reward approaches zero, the network will likely still be protected by whatever combination of fees, base incentives and infrastructure efficiency exists at that time. But that’s a distant concern. In the meantime, the current system — hashrate adjusts, difficulty rebalances, miners adapt — remains one of the most robust elements of Bitcoin’s design.Did you know? On April 20, 2024, following the launch of the Runes protocol, Bitcoin miners earned over $80 million in transaction fees within a single day, surpassing the $26 million earned from block rewards. This marked the first time in Bitcoin’s history that transaction fees alone exceeded the block subsidy in daily miner revenue. The future of Bitcoin mining: Energy consumption It’s a common misconception that rising Bitcoin prices will drive endless energy use. In reality, mining is constrained by profitability, not price alone.As block rewards shrink, miners are pushed toward thinner margins, and that means chasing the cheapest, cleanest energy available. Since China’s 2021 mining ban, hashrate has migrated to regions like North America and Northern Europe, where operators tap into surplus hydro, wind and underutilized grid energy.According to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, between 52% and 59% of Bitcoin mining now runs on renewables or low-emission sources. Regulations are reinforcing this trend, with several jurisdictions offering incentives for clean-powered mining or penalizing fossil-fuel operations.Moreover, the idea that higher BTC prices will always mean higher energy use misses how Bitcoin self-regulates: More miners raise difficulty, which compresses margins, capping energy expansion. Renewable-based mining brings its own challenges, but the dystopian future of endlessly expanding fossil-fueled hash power is increasingly unlikely.
Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1K
Key takeaways:Ethereum has reclaimed a key level that preceded 100%+ rallies and triggered past altseasons.Altcoin market cap could surge toward $15 trillion if Bitcoin dominance repeats its post-halving drop.Despite bullish signals, ETH remains fragile, with $123B in supply near cost basis at risk of flipping into a loss.Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has reclaimed a key technical level that has historically preceded sharp price gains and marked the start of an “altseason” across multiple market cycles in the last five years.ETH price can double in the coming monthsThe level in question is the mid-line (~$2,600) of the Gaussian Channel — a moving average-based band that tracks long-term momentum — on the 2-week chart.ETH/USD two-week price chart. Source: TradingViewIn 2020-2021, ETH rallied from $400 to over $4,800 after closing above the Gaussian mid-line. A similar move in late 2023 saw ETH climb from below $1,500 to nearly $4,000 within a year.In both instances, ETH quickly advanced toward and broke above the channel’s upper band as momentum built.As of May 2025, that upper band sat near $3,200, making it the next key resistance. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the previous cycle high of $4,100 by July.Related: Ethereum price chart targets $4K as transaction fees hit 3-month highThe next ETH pump may start altseason — AnalystsETH price rally may further influence the broader altcoin market to rise alongside, according to market analyst Moustache, who cited the same Gaussian Channel fractal.Source: MoustacheThe combined market cap of the altcoin market, excluding Ethereum, surged by over 1,400% over a year after Ether’s close above the channel’s midline in July 2020.Similarly, the altcoin market cap gained by more than 200% a year after ETH’s midline breakout in November 2023.ETH/USDT two-week price chart. Source: TradingViewThe prospect of a 2025 altseason strengthens with a repeating post-Bitcoin-halving pattern. In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply around 400 days after the halving, triggering altcoin rallies. With the April 2024 halving nearing the same period, a similar decline could occur within the next 100 days.BTC.D performance chart. Source: Wimar XAnalyst Wimar X expects the altcoin market cap to surge toward $15 trillion if the trend repeats.Ethereum metric warns about potential bull trapThe largest portion of ETH’s market cap — around $123 billion — is held by investors who bought between $2,300 and $2,500, according to onchain data from Glassnode.ETH market cap by profit and loss. Source: GlassnodeIf ETH’s price drops even slightly below this range, a large number of holders would fall into a loss. That could increase the risk of panic selling, adding pressure to the market. So while ETH is showing technical strength, its support remains shallow unless it can move further away from this cost zone.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
ZKPs can prove I'm old enough without telling you my age
Opinion by: Andre Omietanski, General Counsel, and Amal Ibraymi, Legal Counsel at Aztec LabsWhat if you could prove you're over 18, without revealing your birthday, name, or anything else at all? Zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) make this hypothetical a reality and solve one of the key challenges online: verifying age without sacrificing privacy. The need for better age verification todayWe're witnessing an uptick in laws being proposed restricting minors' access to social media and the internet, including in Australia, Florida, and China. To protect minors from inappropriate adult content, platform owners and governments often walk a tightrope between inaction and overreach. For example, the state of Louisiana in the US recently enacted a law meant to block minors from viewing porn. Sites required users to upload an ID before viewing content. The Free Speech Coalition challenged the law as unconstitutional, making the case that it infringed on First Amendment rights. The lawsuit was eventually dismissed on procedural grounds. The reaction, however, highlights the dilemma facing policymakers and platforms: how to block minors without violating adults' rights or creating new privacy risks.Traditional age verification failsCurrent age verification tools are either ineffective or invasive. Self-declaration is meaningless, since users can simply lie about their age. ID-based verification is overly invasive. No one should be required to upload their most sensitive documents, putting themselves at risk of data breaches and identity theft. Biometric solutions like fingerprints and face scans are convenient for users but raise important ethical, privacy, and security concerns. Biometric systems are not always accurate and may generate false positives and negatives. The irreversible nature of the data, which can't be changed like a regular password can, is also less than ideal. Other methods, like behavioral tracking and AI-driven verification of browser patterns, are also problematic, using machine learning to analyze user interactions and identify patterns and anomalies, raising concerns of a surveillance culture.ZKPs as the privacy-preserving solutionZero-knowledge proofs present a compelling solution. Like a government ID provider, a trusted entity verifies the user's age and generates a cryptographic proof confirming they are over the required age. Websites only need to check the proof, not the excess personal data, ensuring privacy while keeping minors at the gates. No centralized data storage is required, alleviating the burden on platforms such as Google, Meta, and WhatsApp and eliminating the risk of data breaches. Recent: How zero-knowledge proofs can make AI fairerAdopting and enforcing ZKPs at scaleZKPs aren't a silver bullet. They can be complex to implement. The notion of "don't trust, verify," proven by indisputable mathematics, may cause some regulatory skepticism. Policymakers may hesitate to trust cryptographic proofs over visible ID verification. There are occasions when companies may need to disclose personal information to authorities, such as during an investigation into financial crimes or government inquiries. This would challenge ZKPs, whose very intention is for platforms not to hold this data in the first place.ZKPs also struggle with scalability and performance, being somewhat computationally intensive and tricky to program. Efficient implementation techniques are being explored, and breakthroughs, such as the Noir programming language, are making ZKPs more accessible to developers, driving the adoption of secure, privacy-first solutions. A safer, smarter future for age verificationGoogle's move to adopt ZKPs for age verification is a promising signal that mainstream platforms are beginning to embrace privacy-preserving technologies. But to fully realize the potential of ZKPs, we need more than isolated solutions locked into proprietary ecosystems. Crypto-native wallets can go further. Open-source and permissionless blockchain-based systems offer interoperability, composability, and programmable identity. With a single proof, users can access a range of services across the open web — no need to start from scratch every time, or trust a single provider (Google) with their credentials.ZKPs flip the script on online identity — proving what matters, without exposing anything else. They protect user privacy, help platforms stay compliant, and block minors from restricted content, all without creating new honeypots of sensitive data.Google's adoption of ZKPs shows mainstream momentum is building. But to truly transform digital identity, we must embrace crypto-native, decentralized systems that give users control over what they share and who they are online.In an era defined by surveillance, ZKPs offer a better path forward — one that's secure, private, and built for the future.Opinion by: Andre Omietanski, General Counsel, and Amal Ibraymi, Legal Counsel at Aztec Labs.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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Creator:Cointelegraph by Andre Omietanski and Amal Ibraymi
